Gold Price Forecast 2025

With July well underway, investors' minds are now turning to the year ahead and considering what 2025 will hold for the gold price. 2024 has already been a record-breaking year, with further highs expected to come before we even reach 2025. Many of the forecasts for 2024 have already been surpassed, leaving analysts re-evaluating what's to come for their 2025 gold price forecasts.

US interest rates and the dollar, a US presidential election, ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Israel, central bank buying and higher consumer demand in China will all have a part to play in affecting the gold price in 2025.

Below we will discuss each of these elements in further detail and discuss the potential impact they could have on the 2025 gold price. As always, we must stress a forecast is just that, and no one knows what will happen to the gold price in the future as the past few years have proven. We will of course update this forecast should any significant event result in any major revisions to the forecasts for 2025.

Update January 2025: Gold continued to climb in 2024, scoring a record high of $2,792.70 per ounce in October. This leaves gold above many of the original forecasts for the gold price in 2025.

Update April 2025: Gold has continued to set new all-time highs globally as markets react to the new Trump Presidency in America and the volatility created by tariffs. At the time of writing gold has climbed to a new USD record of $3,247.33 at it’s peak, an increase of more than 20% so far in 2025.

Gold Price 2025

The gold price in 2025 will inherit many of the drivers seen in recent years, but with the price rising unexpectedly in 2024, there are new factors to consider as well, particularly from Asia. The strength of the dollar, inflation and interest rates, combined with the US election will make America a particularly big driver for the gold price in 2025. The importance of the global economy and geopolitics hasn't gone away however, so international drivers will also have the potential for some big gains for gold in 2025.

US dollar, inflation, and rates

The strength of the US dollar is of course key to the gold price in 2025. Persistent inflation has seen expectations over the first interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve pushed back to September 2024, with a second cut also expected in 2024. If this does occur it will result in the dollar weakening, helping to push the gold price higher heading into 2025.

Inflation has been heading towards the Fed's target, but higher wages and service inflation, and ongoing uncertainty over energy supplies and shipping in the Red Sea are expected to make inflation difficult to fully stamp out.

If inflation continues to fall, or the US economy shows signs of weakening (GDP falling or unemployment rising) then the Fed could continue to cut rates into 2025. This would further weaken the dollar and drive gold higher. If inflation proves difficult to bring to the Fed's 2% target and the US economy remains resilient then they could keep rate cuts to a minimum, or even have to raise them slightly should inflation climb higher. This would strengthen the dollar and be seen as negative for gold.

Update January 2025: Interest rate expectations have been pared back as the year begins, with inflation proving sticky, and prices expected to rise if Donald Trump's tariffs plans do come to pass. If inflation remains above target, or increases in pace, then the Federal Reserve may not be able to cut rates as much, or could even have to increase rates. This has kept the US dollar strong against other currencies, and limited gold's growth heading into 2025.

Update April 2025: Rate expectations have been buffeted by the escalating global trade war. The uncertainty caused by the announcements, and reversals of tariffs has seen trillions lost on stock markets. Rates are expected to be cut at the June/July FOMC meetings, with further cuts by the end of the year. The US dollar index has dropped from post-election highs, which has supported the gold price.

US election

One of the major political events of 2024 that will have significant implications for America, the US dollar, and the wider world in 2025 will be the US election.

With Joe Biden standing down in July, the election has been thrown into uncertainty. Kamala Harris is currently expected to win the Democrat nomination but has struggled to win over voters in opinion polls during her time as Vice-President. Whoever does stand for the Democrats will face a campaign of just a few months.

A failed assassination attempt on Republican nominee Donald Trump in July has pushed him further ahead in the polls, and he currently looks to be the favourite to return the White House in January 2025.

A win for Donald Trump is considered positive for gold, with a more America-first focus and economic uncertainty. The trade war with China was a key economic feature during Trump's first term, and four years on, relationships between China and the US have hardly improved. With demand in China (to be discussed below) becoming a key driver in 2024, gold's fortunes have shifted away from the West, but the US election still has the potential to be a big driver for gold in 2025.

Update January 2025: Donald Trump secured a clear victory in the election. President Trump has promised trade tariffs on goods coming into America. His second term is sure to contain as much uncertainty as the first, and he is faced with the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Geopolitics and conflict

Geopolitics and conflict remain a more uncertain driver for gold but offer plenty of potential to see the price rise. War in Ukraine, and the conflict in Gaza both have risks of further escalation that has so far been avoided.

There is uncertainty over US policy for Ukraine should Donald Trump win the presidency, with both he and his Vice-President pick previously suggesting the US could take a step back in their support of Ukraine against Russia, which could cause a significant change to the conflict should that occur. Ukraine also continues to seek membership to NATO, though this is not expected to be completed while the war with Russia is ongoing.

The conflict in Gaza has already sparked further escalation across the Middle East, with Iran and Israel trading missile strikes in April 2024. Escalation remains a big concern in the area, and could also impact the global economy, having a knock-on effect with shipping and oil supply, keeping inflation high and limiting potential rate cuts from the Fed.

Update January 2025: An initial ceasefire and potential de-escalation in the Middle East has begun at the time of writing, while Donald Trump's claims of ending the war in Ukraine remain to be seen. Prices have been unaffected so far by any of these developments however.

Update April 2025: Following a ceasefire, conflict in the Middle East has resumed, prompting some further safe haven demand for gold. The Ukraine war continues despite increased efforts to find a resolution. Geopolitics has instead been upended by President Trump. Economically, the announcement and reversal of trade tariffs has created significant uncertainty for the global economy, while continued claims over countries like Canada and Greenland have surprised the world.

Central bank buying

Central bank buying has been very supportive for the gold price in recent years, and 2025 looks to be no different. China have paused purchases after a long buying spree, but should they resume, this would be very positive for gold.

Plenty of other central banks have stepped in though, even while China pauses, and a survey released by the World Gold Council in June showed that 81% of respondents expected gold reserves to increase across the next 12 months.

Update January 2025: China has returned to buying gold reserves in the past two months, in what seen as a big boost for the gold price in the year ahead. If China does continue to keep buying this will undoubtedly support the price.

Demand in Asia

Alongside central bank buying from China, 2024 also saw a rise in gold demand from retail investors in Asia that resulted in significant gains for gold in the first half of the year. With a struggling economy and property market, heavy restrictions on investments like cryptos, and copying their central bank, Chinese investors turned to gold as a way to invest their money. Both physical products, and paper gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, saw large influxes and gold trading at a steep premium compared to the west.

Given this demand for gold saw the price rise more than 20% in the first half of 2024 to hit new all-time highs, it is therefore another key driver to consider for the gold price in 2025.

Gold Price Prediction 2025

Having set new all-time highs in 2024, it is no surprise that the gold price predictions for 2025 include some new records. Predictions for the gold price in 2025 fall into two main camps; those who believe rates will only come down slowly and the high price will keep demand to a minimum, and those who believe that rates being cut will help spur gold to new highs.

Below is a list of some of the gold price predictions for 2025 from various analysts.

ANZ Research - $2,593

Citigroup- $3,000

HSBC - $2,075

ING - $2,300

JP Morgan - $2,600

Trading Economics - $2,424.29

HSBC have a surprisingly low prediction around $2,075 which would require quite a considerable pull back from the levels seen in recent months which gold appears to be finding good support at.

ANZ Research, JP Morgan and Citigroup in particular all forecast new records for gold in 2025, with the metal pushing above $2,500 and even towards $3,000! The average comes to $2,498.72 and would still represent a new record above the current all-time high for gold in dollars.

Considering the gold price predictions for last year have already been soundly beaten, Citi's 2025 forecast of $3,000 doesn't sound outside of the realms of possibly, and $2,500 has been close to being beaten already this year. As such, a range of $2,500 - $3,000 does seem reasonable for the gold price in 2025.

Update April 2025: Analysts have been forced to revise their forecasts multiple times in the first few months of 2025 with previous forecasts already soundly beaten.

Citi have upgraded their 2025 average to $2,900 per ounce, but given gold’s already high price, that would require a significant drop in the second half of the year.

UBS have revised their forecast to $3,500, while Goldman Sachs have revised their forecasts several times, and their latest figure is $3,700 by the end of 2025. $3,700 was also seen as a possibility by Deutsche Bank.