Gold Price Forecast 2026

As we pass the halfway point of the year, investors are increasingly looking ahead to 2026 and the expectations for the gold price. Continuing recent trends, records have already been broken in 2025, and many of the 2026 gold price forecasts suggest further records are on the cards. At the time of writing the current USD high is $3,501.27 per ounce, set in April.

Trade wars, conflict in Europe and the Middle East, and the ongoing struggle with inflation are all key factors to consider in any 2026 gold price prediction.

Below we will discuss each of these elements in further detail and discuss the potential impact they could have on the 2026 gold price. As always, we must stress a forecast is just that, and no one knows what will happen to the gold price in the future as the past few years have proven. We will of course update this forecast should any significant event(s) result in any major revisions to the forecasts for 2026.

Gold Price 2026

The gold price in 2026 follows two record-breaking years which leave the metal close to all-time highs. Will investors be put off with gold prices so high, or will demand continue to drive prices further into uncharted territory?

US dollar, inflation and interest rates

A recurring theme for several years, the strength of the US dollar remains a key part of forecasts for the gold price in 2026. The US dollar index (a measure of the currency’s strength against a basket of other currencies) has lost roughly 10% year-to-date in 2025. This weakness in the dollar has been prompted by the uncertainty introduced with the start of Donald Trump’s second term.

The dollar’s decline has ultimately been ongoing for several years as countries moved away from the dollar as a reserve currency, but the trend has accelerated in 2025 and could continue in 2026 if countries feel the US geopolitical and economic stance are against their interests.

Inflation has fallen in recent months, but remains above the Fed’s 2% target, and economists expect prices to rise as the US introduces sweeping tariffs. Economic data also remains relatively strong so far, and combined with sticky inflation, has given the Fed pause from cutting interest rates quickly. Higher rates are supportive of the US dollar, but if the economy begins to weaken the Fed could be forced to cut rates which would see the dollar fall further and support the gold price.

Trade war

Related to the above is the US trade war. The introduction of sweeping tariffs on US imports from many countries around the world has rocked markets in 2025. Despite some U-turns along the way, tariffs look set to remain in place in some form with various trading partners around the world. If President Trump should decide to go ahead with higher rates against the likes of China and the EU it could have a significant impact on the both the US and wider global economy. The threat of tariffs however has so far seemed more of a negotiating tactic, and forecasting on this topic is highly speculative.

Central bank demand

A key area of support for gold in 2026 will be central bank demand, as with previous years. With gold reaching record highs, there has been some weakening in demand versus the record year of 2024, but central banks are still buying gold in historically high amounts.

China in particular remains a major buyer, and at the time of writing has reported gold purchases for eight consecutive months. As one of the major targets of Trump’s tariffs, China remains keen to build reserves outside of the US dollar, and gold has been a popular choice for over a year now.

Geopolitics and conflict

The war in Ukraine continues despite renewed attempts by President Trump to bring an end to the conflict. If anything recent drone attacks by both sides have been larger than before, and even a ceasefire seems far from certain. A lack of escalation outside of Ukraine however after more than three years means markets are relatively unmoved.

In the Middle East events have moved beyond Gaza, with Israel and the US carrying out missile strikes in Iran against nuclear facilities and personnel. The conflict was brief, but demonstrates the tensions that continue to bubble beneath the surface in the Middle East.

Gold Price Prediction 2026

Having set new all-time highs in 2025, analysts believe that 2026 could see gold climb higher still. Gold price predictions for 2026 generally see gold either consolidating around current levels, or climbing to new highs. With a current record of $3,501.27 per ounce, where do analysts forecast gold will land in 2026?

Below is a list of some of the gold price predictions for 2026:

HSBC – 2026 average of $3,125

Goldman Sachs - $4,000 by mid-2026

UBS - $3,500

JP Morgan - $4,000 by Q2 2026

Deutsch Bank - $3,700

Citi - $2,500 - $2,700

Wells Fargo - $3,600 by the end of 2026

Citi are currently the lowest forecast, and would be implying quite a significant pull back from current levels to reach even $2,700 (the top of their range). A gold price in 2026 at this level would require a significant easing in trade tensions and a stronger US dollar.

Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are both at the top of the predictions with $4,000. Having hit $3,500 in April, this would still represent a 14% further gain for the price of gold in 2026.

Across all of our 2026 gold price predictions the average comes in at $3,517.85 just slightly above the current all-time high. Given forecasts in the previous two years have been soundly beaten however, it is possible the upper estimates of $4,000 per ounce could be closer to the mark.